DataGreat, a tourism intelligence platform, has unveiled a scenario analysis that explores how a second shock to Russian outbound tourism could alter travel patterns across Europe and the eastern Mediterranean. This analysis was conducted using DataGreat’s Crisis Impact Simulator and is based on the WTTC Economic Impact Report 2025 dataset. The initial disruption to Russian tourism occurred following the February 2022 invasion of Ukraine, which led to sanctions, airspace restrictions, and payment challenges, causing Russian travelers to seek non-EU destinations like Türkiye, the United Arab Emirates, and Egypt. As a result, EU countries experienced a significant drop in Russian tourists, with declines exceeding seventy percent since 2022.
The new analysis considers the impact of a further reduction in Russian outbound tourism due to potential factors such as stricter sanctions, payment system limitations, ruble depreciation, or additional travel route closures. The Crisis Impact Simulator models this potential shock, predicting a 20-35 percent decrease in Russian travelers to specific destinations over a year. The analysis categorizes exposure into residual EU destinations still receiving Russian tourists, Mediterranean locations reliant on package holidays and charters, and absorber markets like Türkiye, which may need to find alternative source markets to compensate for any loss in Russian visitors.
The simulator identifies the sectors most vulnerable to these changes, including charter-dependent package operators, coastal resorts operating outside peak seasons, and destination management companies focused on Russian-speaking tour groups. Vulnerability assessments are based on inbound share data, with an AI component providing context for the figures. The simulator suggests mitigation strategies such as diversifying source markets toward Gulf Cooperation Council countries and India, repositioning products for European markets, and implementing currency hedging strategies for businesses with significant ruble-based cash flow.
Complementing this analysis is DataGreat’s Risk Radar module, which evaluates 42 destinations weekly across six tourism risk categories, including source-market concentration. Together, these tools help analysts understand the specific impacts of potential shocks on different tourism segments. DataGreat plans to release detailed destination-specific breakdowns from the simulator gradually through 2026, with the full simulator output available upon request for credentialed media.
DataGreat, operated by Solustiq Yazılım ve Yapay Zeka Teknolojileri A.Ş. and headquartered in Edirne, Türkiye, leverages a comprehensive dataset from the WTTC Economic Impact Report 2025. The platform offers a range of tools, including a Persona Builder, Risk Radar, Campaign Brief Generator, and Crisis Impact Simulator, to provide valuable insights for tourism analysis across 42 countries.
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