US Oil Prices in Freefall and Spike Cycle as Iran War Continues Into Third Week

US oil prices are oscillating wildly as the Iran conflict enters its third week, with fresh turbulence expected Monday and analysts warning of prices approaching $3.85 per gallon. Patrick De Haan, a leading voice in US petroleum analysis, has signaled that $4 remains possible but not yet imminent. Three weeks of sustained military operations have left the global oil market in a state of deep unpredictability.
The origins of the current energy crisis lie in the February 28 launch of US and Israeli strikes against Iran, which immediately triggered price increases across global oil markets. The national gasoline average has since risen from below $3 per gallon to $3.70, a 23% increase driven by physical supply disruptions and investor uncertainty. Economists warn that the longer the conflict continues, the more permanent some of these price increases could become.
Among the most disruptive recent developments was Friday’s US strike on Kharg Island, the facility responsible for processing a large share of Iran’s crude oil exports. Iran has simultaneously maintained its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, denying international shipping access to a waterway responsible for roughly 20% of world oil supply. Brent crude climbed to $106 per barrel Monday before settling at $103, while US crude dipped to $94 after reaching $100 the previous day.
The impact on American consumers varies sharply by region, with Californians bearing the greatest burden—statewide averages above $5 per gallon and some Los Angeles stations charging more than $8. Trucking and freight industries face potential diesel prices of $5.15 per gallon. Exxon CEO Darren Woods, along with the leaders of Chevron and ConocoPhillips, have formally alerted White House officials to the escalating supply crisis and the risk that speculative traders could amplify price increases further.
Stock markets showed modest improvement Monday, with the S&P 500 up approximately 1% following a brief softening in crude prices. Oil company shares have hit historic highs since hostilities began, reflecting investor confidence in the energy sector even amid broader economic uncertainty. For American households and businesses dependent on affordable fuel, however, the picture remains deeply concerning.